With the expert panel constituted by the Jayalalithaa government to study the safety of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant (KKNPP) giving it a clean chit, the protest story is practically over.
Almost all political parties have asked for the commissioning of the plant. The latest to join them is the state unit of the CPM. The state is reeling under one of its worst power crises with the industrial and agricultural belts literally gasping for breath. There is absolutely no choice but to get as much power as possible from all possible sources.
To rub salt into the wounds of the protestors, the People’s Movement Against Nuclear Energy (PMANE), the state government panel has called the KKNPP “world-class,” “which can even withstand a Tsunami or an earthquake.” The panel said the plant is completely safe and not even a fish will die in its coastal vicinity.
The PMANE had earlier thought that the state government was on its side and the real villains were the imperialist centre, ministers V Narayanasamy, P Chidamabaram and the Congress. To their misfortune, this is not the time to play politics for the state government, although it tried a bit initially. They need power and more power at any cost.
The question now is what will happen to PMANE that has been on a warpath against the KKNPP since late last year?
And how does the Jayalalithaa government deal with them?
PMANE did try a bit of amateur politics – they tried to play the nativity, pro-state government and anti-Centre card, but has now been shunned by every political party, loathed by farmers and industries and kept away even by the state government. Jayalalithaa, acutely in need for power, is highly unlikely to go back on her word that her government will decide on the future of the plant based on her panel’s advice. The panel not only cleared the plant, but also paid glowing tributes to its safety features.
So, these are the three scenarios that the PMANE is likely to face:
1. PMANE accepts defeat and the movement loses steam naturally. Or they find some excuse to withdraw themselves based on some compromise assurance by the state government. If this happens, this will be only a face-saving exercise to get out of the way. They will have to fold up and leave in due course. At the moment, odds are reasonably high against such a scene.
2. PMANE loses support from local villagers and the agitation dies down sooner than later. Possibility for such a situation is 50:50.
3. PMANE continues the strike, including blockades, even when the state and central governments decide to move ahead. In such a case, it becomes a law-and-order issue. Perhaps this is most likely to happen and Jayalalithaa government would have already factored this in. Even in such a situation, if the leadership is removed from the spot, the agitators will not be able to sustain themselves.
The next steps are going to be extremely interesting because this will be a case in point for many such agitations in the country. With the state government on its side, the Centre will find it easy to move ahead.
The state has a frustrating daily power-deficit of 4000 MW, which is impossible to bridge in the near future. Chennai’s two-hour power cut is soon to be extended by another hour. The western region is still experiencing day-long power cuts. There is no power in the market and there is no money at hand to buy, even if it is available. Even getting transmission lines to bring power from afar, if possible or available, is not easy.
Power has never been such a political issue in the state which is really aiming big. And those who stand in the way are seen as an “obstacle to progress.”
Almost all political parties have asked for the commissioning of the plant. The latest to join them is the state unit of the CPM. The state is reeling under one of its worst power crises with the industrial and agricultural belts literally gasping for breath. There is absolutely no choice but to get as much power as possible from all possible sources.
The PMANE had earlier thought that the state government was on its side. Screengrab/ibnlive
The PMANE had earlier thought that the state government was on its side and the real villains were the imperialist centre, ministers V Narayanasamy, P Chidamabaram and the Congress. To their misfortune, this is not the time to play politics for the state government, although it tried a bit initially. They need power and more power at any cost.
The question now is what will happen to PMANE that has been on a warpath against the KKNPP since late last year?
And how does the Jayalalithaa government deal with them?
PMANE did try a bit of amateur politics – they tried to play the nativity, pro-state government and anti-Centre card, but has now been shunned by every political party, loathed by farmers and industries and kept away even by the state government. Jayalalithaa, acutely in need for power, is highly unlikely to go back on her word that her government will decide on the future of the plant based on her panel’s advice. The panel not only cleared the plant, but also paid glowing tributes to its safety features.
So, these are the three scenarios that the PMANE is likely to face:
1. PMANE accepts defeat and the movement loses steam naturally. Or they find some excuse to withdraw themselves based on some compromise assurance by the state government. If this happens, this will be only a face-saving exercise to get out of the way. They will have to fold up and leave in due course. At the moment, odds are reasonably high against such a scene.
2. PMANE loses support from local villagers and the agitation dies down sooner than later. Possibility for such a situation is 50:50.
3. PMANE continues the strike, including blockades, even when the state and central governments decide to move ahead. In such a case, it becomes a law-and-order issue. Perhaps this is most likely to happen and Jayalalithaa government would have already factored this in. Even in such a situation, if the leadership is removed from the spot, the agitators will not be able to sustain themselves.
The next steps are going to be extremely interesting because this will be a case in point for many such agitations in the country. With the state government on its side, the Centre will find it easy to move ahead.
The state has a frustrating daily power-deficit of 4000 MW, which is impossible to bridge in the near future. Chennai’s two-hour power cut is soon to be extended by another hour. The western region is still experiencing day-long power cuts. There is no power in the market and there is no money at hand to buy, even if it is available. Even getting transmission lines to bring power from afar, if possible or available, is not easy.
Power has never been such a political issue in the state which is really aiming big. And those who stand in the way are seen as an “obstacle to progress.”
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